I am struck by the parallel between the current debate over the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and the long-settled argument between Natural Selection vs. Design (hint: Natural Selection won). The arguments in favor of a lab leak vs. natural zoonotic origin seem to rely on the much discredited notion of “finely tuned” variants. For example, of the 35 combinations of arginine amino acid codes, SARS-CoV-2 contains the “rarest and least likely to be found” in nature. It is also the “most common” technique used in gain-of-function experiments by virologists.

Assessing the validity of these claims is not simply a function of the state of genomics and virology in general. The unstated assumption upon which the argument rests is a rather curious modern version of “look how complex and finely adapted the eye is in nature.” Nowhere is the powerful machinery of Natural Selection given its due. Curious, for dramatic variations in viruses, as we are repeatedly warned, emerge quite rapidly in timescales compared to, say, our own evolution. Even if a variant is rare, that is hardly an argument against Natural Selection. One could easily turn the argument around and conclude this variation proves its very fitness allowing the virus to make the jump to a new species. One might also say that its rarity is evidence of the novelty of zoonotic leaps.

But virologists surely know this. Why then would some give credence to arguments in favor of design over natural selection? Perhaps virologists have become quite enamored with their ability to augment and manipulate genetic material. God, whether in lab or in Heaven, begets a confidence in our ability to control nature.

I am skeptical of the lab leak theory as much of the speculation is based on wish fulfillment. Anecdotally, it seems to me that many proponents are not satisfied with the “accidental” part, and believe the virus was intentionally released. This raises the desired hope that “someone needs to be blamed and we found the culprit” rather than agonizing over the fact that we, the by-products of Natural Selection, are at the mercy of chance and happenstance.